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Actual electricity consumption was 171 billion kWh in 2006. It will reach 500 TWH in the year 2020. The installed capacity is 40.000MW in 2006. It will have to be 96,000 MW by 2020 inorder to generate as much to meet the demand.
In terms of installed capacity and consumption. Turkey`s figures are more than the average of Europe. But Turkish per capita electricity consumption level is a signifier of the fact that there will be much room for investment in the electricity sector in the coming years.
Turkish energy sector requires a total of 128 Billion Dollars of investment in the next 13 years. The liberalization process makes it possible for the private sector to take a part in these investments. The energy sector currently generates approximately an economic value of 35 billion dollars and it will reach a level of 60 billion dollars 2015.
5 billion dollars is needed in the area of lignite and hardcoal
exploration & extraction, 16 billion dollars is needed in oil
exploration, extraction and facilities, 3 billion dollars is
needed in other areas of natural resource/mining exploration and
extraction, 6 billion dollars is needed in water related
investments, half a billion dollars is needed in the area of
electricity generation rehab, 90 billion dollars is needed in
new electricity generation facilities, one billion dollars is
needed for energy transmission investments and 6 billion dollars
is need for energy distribution investments.
General energy consumption grew three times in the 30 years
since 1980. Oil consumption is expected to increase twice and
gas consumption is expected to quadruple in the next ten years.
Power station turbines and equipments will be like hotcakes in
the next 20 years. The government may order the construction of
a total of 4,500 MW nuclear power plants which will be made
functional in five years time by a new financing methodology
which is waiting in the Parliament as a draft law. It is
definitely going to bring business to vendors in the nuclear
energy construction business.
10.000 MW Lignite, 1500 MW Hard coal, 5000 MW Import coal, 14.000 MW Natural gas, 15.000 MW Hydro, 2000 MW Wind, 4500 MW Nuclear is the detailed composition of the electricity capacity with respect to the available resources in Turkey. Liberal market opened up the business possibilities in the following areas: electricity distribution (20 regions) and generation business privatizations, electricity system instruments and equipment manufacturing and trade, in city natural gas distribution network bids (by EMRA) and certificated network construction business in gas distribution and transmission, possible international natural gas and oil transit, ex-im and storage projects, bio-fuel agriculture and production and refining,
Domestic gas consumption is expected to be 60 bcm by 2015. BOTAS will expand its transmission network. BOTAS` Algeria, Iran, Nigeria and Russian sales and purchase contracts of gas for long term periods is now being retreated to the private sector by gas release auctions which has been finalized recently in 2006. Turkey will buy gas from Azerbaijan which will be exported to Greece by the SEE gas ring project.
The Turkish electricity systems’ 40,500 km of transmission
lines, remote and automatic control systems, scada systems and
16000 MW (6 portfolios) of soon to be privatized thermal and
hydro power plants all need to be rehabilitated and upgraded.
Power plant works necessitate a figure of 600 million dollars. A
transition period until 2010 is forseen in electricity whereby a
tariff equalization method will be in use.
Large power plants like the Yenikoy and Kemerkoy power plants which are in the privatization portfolio are going to probably be privatized later on in 2008 because the distribution privatizations have been postponed until after the elections in Nov. 2007.
DSI (State Hydraulic Works) have listed almost 700 small HEPP
projects, which the private sector can apply for and the private
sector can also bring its own suggestions for HEPP projects.
Lignite mines was and is more and more being opened to the
private sector based on a royalty system and the so called
rodovans system in which a licensees pay a royalty and/or
provides parts of the output to the state on a per ton basis.
350,000 GWh (2015) will be Turkey`s demand for electricity. Small hydro power plants, wind power, solar energy, geothermal, biomass power generation and related technologies are going to be invested in deeply until than. 2,5 billion dollars is expected to be invested in wind projects. Renewables are given incentives by law and regulations of EMRA. Energy imports and carbondioxide, sulphur and other emissions will be brought down by renewables. Hydropower potential is 190 billion kWh per year in Turkey but this may go down by climate change to 130 billion KWh. About 30% of the hydroelectricity potential is being used in power generation. Hydropower plants with a possibility of 12 billion kWh generation per year is currently being built currently. Renewables projects are being encouraged by the energy market regulator Yusuf GUNAY as well.
Renewable potential in Turkey in MW terms is 10000 Wind, 35000 Hydro and 35000 geothermal. The potential for solar energy is 35 Mtoe per year. Hydrocarbons of the Caspian, middle east and central asia will need Turkey as an “energy corridor” towards the energy hungary West. Turkish electricity network join UCTE at the end of 2007.
The EU's gas import dependency is 43% will be 66% by 2020. EU official documents such as the recent green paper, external energy policy papers and TEN decisions cite that 70% of the incremental gas demand of Europe can come through Turkey. The USA wants to reduce dependence on middle eastern hydrocarbons with supply disruptions. Turkey will be fourth energy supply after Norway, Russia, and Libya.
The Caspian -Turkey -Europe (Shah Deniz) gas pipeline project is going to bring South Caucasian Gas of Azerbaijan via Georgia to Turkey. 6.6 bcm of gas will be supplied to Turkey and by new agreements some of the gas will be allocated to Georgia to protect it from Gazprom`s dominance.
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) crude oil pipeline from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to Ceyhan in Turkey is operational now.
The Nabucco natural gas pipeline project from Turkey to Austria through Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary to bring natural gas from Egypt, Syria and eventually from Iraq to the EU is officialized by the MOU of 2002. The 3400 km pipeline will set back the parties by 5 billion Euros which will be offset by TPA exemptions by regulators.
The Iraq-Turkey natural gas pipeline will transport 10 BCM gas per annum from Iraq. ENI-Agip is designated for upstream and Gaz de France is designated for midstream functions of the security problematiqued project.
Samsun Ceyhan crude oil pipeline project will let Russian gas to Lebanon and Israel via Turkey transport with a 50-70 million tons of oil annual transportation capacity via a 1,000 km long system. LNG export terminals on the Mediterranean are also in the agenda which all will Ceyhan into a hydrocarbon hub.
Turkey-Egypt gas project will carry 4 bcm/year of gas from Egypt to Turkey by a pipeline which will go through the Mediterranean Sea.
Turkey-Greece Interconnector`s volume of trade will be 0.25 bcm/year and it will increase gradually to 0.75 bcm/year. Edison of Italy is building the Greece-Italy natural gas interconnector with 500 km of on-shore and off-shore pipelines.
oil exports project through Turkey with a potential of 6
million barrels per day by 2010 worth 40 billion dollars is
being talked about. The mending needs of the existing oil
export facilities of Iraq is talked to be worth 7 billion
Lastly the very high prices occurring in the financial balancing and settlement system of Turkish electricity PMUM/TEIAS and the above mentioned possibilities offer a lot in terms of energy dollars in and from TURKEY. In short, Turkey must be watched and its resources must be utilized .
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Copyright © 2006 Middle East Economic Engineering Forum | RAK Free Zone | UAE | Tel/Fax: +971 50 374 0617 All rights reserved..