The U.S. vs. Iran
by Michael
Rubin
Wall Street Journal
http://www.meforum.org/article/1023
The Iranian government continues to enrich
uranium despite Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's generous
package of incentives--and in defiance of the U.N.'s Aug. 31
deadline. Still, European officials hold out hope for the
success of diplomacy. On Sept. 15, Javier Solana, the European
Union's foreign policy chief, said, "We are really making
progress. Never before have we had a level of engagement . . .
as we have now." Diplomats will look for any hopeful sign from
Iranian President's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's forthcoming U.N.
speech. But can talk work? Successful diplomacy requires that
both sides negotiate in good faith and honor commitments. That
Tehran's track record undercuts confidence should not surprise.
From its very inception, the Islamic Republic has eschewed
diplomatic norms.
On Nov. 4, 1979, Iranian students seized
the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding 52 hostages for 444 days.
Warren Christopher, deputy secretary of state during the crisis,
called the Iranian move a "flagrant violation" of the 1961
Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and the 1963 Vienna
Convention on Consular Relations. But Iranian officials endorsed
the seizure. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini praised the students.
His successor as supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, showed support
with a visit to the embassy soon after its seizure. Ironically,
while the Iranian leadership often demands apologies for
transgressions both real and imagined, it continues to uphold
the righteousness of hostage seizure, underscoring official
contempt for diplomatic convention.
Still, the embassy seizure might be long
forgotten had Tehran's disdain for diplomatic norms been the
exception rather than the rule. In 1986, former U.S. national
security advisor Robert McFarlane's traveled to Tehran. While
the Iran-Contra Affair is remembered today for the Reagan
administration's attempts to circumvent Congressional
prohibition of funding of the Nicaraguan resistance, it also
illustrates the inadvisability of trusting Tehran. President
Reagan sought to win the release of American hostages in Lebanon
but, as soon as Washington compensated Tehran for its bad
behavior, its militias accelerated hostage seizure. Diplomatic
enticement--bribery by another name--backfired. But diplomacy is
not just about incentives; it is also about trust. What could
have been just a failed initiative turned to scandal when, on
the seventh anniversary of the embassy seizure, Ali Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani, today the chairman of the Expediency
Council, broke a pledge of secrecy and revealed the meetings to
the international press.
Iranian authorities showed diplomatic
duplicity once again after Khomeini issued a declaration calling
for author Salman Rushdie's death. Four months before Khomeini's
death, then-president Khamenei demanded that Mr. Rushdie
apologize in exchange for cancellation of a religious edict
ordering his murder. Mr. Rushdie apologized, but the Iranian
government nevertheless kept the bounty in place. President
Khamenei was insincere, his diplomacy was a tactic. By winning
an apology, he confirmed Mr. Rushdie's guilt.
Iranian lying should not surprise; what
should is how often Western governments fall prey to it. The
British government demanded that Tehran lift the bounty on Mr.
Rushdie's head as a precondition to re-establish relations. On
Sept. 24, 1998, the Iranian government said it would do nothing
to harm Mr. Rushdie. No sooner had London and Tehran exchanged
ambassadors, than Iranian authorities once again reversed
themselves.
For U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq,
the cost of Iranian lying is high. While Iranian diplomats
pledged not to destabilize Afghanistan and, indeed, cooperate in
its reconstruction, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps sent
in operatives disguised as school teachers to further
instability. As Afghan President Hamid Karzai struggled to wrest
control away from warlords, Afghan commanders intercepted a
dozen Iranian agents and proxies organizing armed resistance.
In Iraq, too, Iranian diplomacy has been
duplicitous. Prior to the Iraq war, Iranian Foreign Minister
Kamal Kharrazi and U.N. Ambassador Mohammad Javad Zarif, pledged
Iranian noninterference to British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook
and Zalmay Khalilzad, then President George W. Bush's envoy to
the free Iraqis. But, Iranian journalists now describe how, days
after Saddam's fall, the Iranian leadership dispatched 2,000
Revolutionary Guards replete with radio transmitters, money, and
supplies. On Nov. 18, 2003, Mr. Kharrazi again pledged good
behavior. He lied outright; his promise coincided with a new
deployment of Iranian intelligence across Iraq. The
Revolutionary Guard stepped up its training of Muqtada al-Sadr's
militia. Hasan Kazemi Qomi, previously Iran's liaison to
Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, became Tehran's top diplomat in
Baghdad. Mr. Qomi assured diplomats that "Iran will not accept
anything that destabilizes Iraq." Four months later, Iraqi
forces captured 30 Iranians fighting alongside Sadr's militia.
Earlier this month, I traveled to the
Middle East to meet Shiite tribal leaders and urban notables
from southern Iraq. They described how Iran has transformed its
consulates in Karbala and Basra into distribution points for
everything from money to shaped charges. That Tehran uses
diplomatic pouches and protocols to safeguard its network
reflects their insincerity. While the West approaches diplomacy
with sincerity, the Islamic Republic mocks diplomatic convention
to shield subversion.
Iran's nuclear program raises the stakes
of its deceit to U.S. national security. There is little doubt
that Tehran's nuclear program is not peaceful. On Feb. 14, 2005,
Ayatollah Mohammad Baqer Kharrazi, secretary-general of Iranian
Hezbollah, promised, "We are able to produce atomic bombs and we
will do that." In February 2006, Mohsen Gharavian, a Qom
theologian well-connected to the Islamic Republic's staunchest
ideologues, called Iran's possession of nuclear weapons
"natural."
Iran's nuclear program has advanced
through the trust of diplomats and their willingness to provide
hard currency in the name of dialogue and engagement. Between
2000 and 2005, European Union trade with Iran almost tripled.
Tehran invested much of this money in arms and nuclear
infrastructure. For more than a decade, through both the
Rafsanjani and Khatami administrations, Iranian authorities hid
the existence of a uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and a
heavy water plant at Khondab. That Western diplomats label Mr.
Rafsanjani a pragmatist and Mr. Khatami a reformer underscores
the danger of judging Iranian officials by style rather than
action.
In February 2003, the Iranian authorities
opened the secret plants to International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) inspectors. Their subsequent report was damning: Not only
had the Iranian government designed the Natanz facility to house
at least 50,000 centrifuges, but Tehran had the import of almost
a ton of uranium from China, and could not account for missing
processed uranium. During subsequent inspections, Iranian
authorities repeatedly changed their stories when asked about
the origin of weapons-grade uranium traces. Subsequent
inspections exposed other lies. Finally, on Sept. 24, 2004, the
IAEA Board of Governors, after recalling a litany of Iranian
mistruths, found Iran in breach of its Non-Proliferation Treaty
Safeguards Agreement. While Iranian officials have made many
subsequent pledges to cooperate, their actions belie their
words. They have yet to abide by the Additional Protocol's
inspection standards and, earlier this year, turned away IAEA
inspectors from Natanz in violation of the NPT.
While diplomacy necessarily involves
talking to adversaries, Washington should not assume that the
ayatollahs operate from the same set of ground rules. During his
long exile in Najaf, Khomeini endorsed taqiya,
religiously sanctioned dissembling. From his perspective and
that of his followers, the ends justify the means. Hence,
Khomeini saw nothing wrong when he told the Guardian newspaper,
just months before his return to Iran, "I don't want to have the
power of government in my hand; I am not interested in personal
power." Tehran may still conduct diplomacy to fish for incentive
and reward but, at its core, Iranian diplomacy is insincere. The
Iranian leadership will say anything and do anything to buy the
time necessary to acquire nuclear capability. That Foggy Bottom
still advises against any strategy that might undercut the
possibility of some illusionary breakthrough signals triumph not
of realism but of negligence. Diplomacy cannot succeed if one
side is playing for real and the other only for time.
Mr. Rubin, a
resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, is
co-author, with Patrick Clawson, of Eternal Iran: Continuity
and Chaos (Palgrave, 2005).
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